Logistic Regression Analysis of Operational Errors and Routine Operations

Two separate logistic regression analyses were conducted for low- and high-altitude sectors to determine whether a set of dynamic sector characteristics variables could reliably discriminate between operational error (OE) and routine operation (RO) traffic samples. Dynamic sector characteristics submitted as predictors were: Average Control Duration, Number of Handoffs, Number of Heading Changes, Number of Intersecting Flight Paths, Number of Point Outs, and Number of Transitioning Aircraft. In the low-altitude sector model, the Number of Intersecting Flight Paths, the Number of Point Outs, and the Number of Handoffs produced a 75% overall classification accuracy. In the high-altitude sector model, the Number of Intersecting Flight Paths, the Number of Heading Changes, the Number of Transitioning Aircraft, and Average Control Duration produced a 79% overall classification accuracy. Classification rates achieved through the use of the selected sector characteristics support the assumption that elements of the sector environment contribute to the occurrence of OEs