TERRORISM AS A THREAT TO ECONOMIC GROWTH – A MYTH OR A REALITY?

Na pitanje utječe li i u kojoj mjeri terorizam na gospodarski rast nije moguće dati jednoznačan odgovor. Iako su izravni troškovi terorizma povezani s uništenjem imovine najvidljiviji, njih često mogu nadmašiti neizravni troškovi. U tom kontekstu, ovisno o karakteristikama pogođene zemlje, terorizam može i ne mora imati značajan utjecaj na njezino gospodarstvo. Kada je negativan učinak terorizma na gospodarstvo i utvrđen, analizirane studije uglavnom su ukazivale na ograničene, iako često statistički značajne makroekonomske posljedice. Ove posljedice bile su izraženije na lokalnoj razini, ali učinci terorizma najčešće nisu bili toliko snažni da bi doveli do većih i/ili trajnijih učinaka na ukupan BDP zemlje. Ovaj zaključak vrijedi za većinu zemalja, iako je učinak terorizma na gospodarstvo znatno slabiji, a ponekad i nepostojeći, u većim i gospodarski razvijenijim zemljama s višom razinom dohotka. S druge strane, učinak terorizma je izraženiji ako se promatra njegov utjecaj samo na neke gospodarske grane, u prvom redu na one koje ne ovise isključivo o ekonomskim zakonitostima, već i o psihologiji potrošača, kao što je turizam. Ove posljedice mogu biti posebno izražene u zemljama u razvoju, osobito ako su politički nestabilne, a turizam u njima ima velik udio u BDP-u pa nagli pad turističkih dolazaka i prihoda od turizma može uvelike utjecati na ukupan gospodarski rast zemlje. Međutim, unatoč relativno velikoj ranjivosti turizma na pojavu terorizma, studije su uglavnom pokazale da se turizam prilično brzo oporavlja i da učinci terorizma na njega nisu dugotrajni pod uvjetom da se ne radi o kontinuiranoj ili dugotrajnijoj terorističkoj kampanji. Dakle, na pitanje utječe li terorizam na gospodarski rast neke zemlje, sažeto bi se moglo odgovoriti: da, vjerojatno utječe na negativan način, ali učinak je situacijski i vremenski uvjetovan. Hoće li taj učinak biti statistički značajan, ovisi o nizu faktora od kojih su najznačajniji težina i dugotrajnost terorističkih akata ili terorističke kampanje, društvena, politička i gospodarska struktura pogođene zemlje, te njezina razina dohotka i ovisnost o sektorima ranjivijima na pojavu terorizma. Osim toga, posljedice koje određena država i društvo trpe od terorizma često su i subjektivne te se teško mogu objektivno kvantificirati isključivo u matematičkim i ekonomskim kategorijama.It is not possible to give an unambiguous answer to the question whether and to what extent terrorism influences the economic growth. Although the direct costs of terrorism associated with asset destruction are most noticeable, they can often be outweighed by indirect costs. In this context, depending on the characteristics of the affected country, terrorism may or may not have a significant impact on its economy. When the negative impact of terrorism on the economy was established, the analyzed studies mostly indicated a limited, but often statistically significant, macroeconomic consequences. These consequences were more pronounced at the local level, but the effects of terrorism were often not strong enough to lead to greater and/or more lasting effects on the total GDP of a country. This conclusion is valid for most countries, although the impact of terrorism on economic growth is considerably weaker and sometimes non-existent in larger and more economically developed countries with higher income. On the other hand, the effects of terrorism are more pronounced if we focus only to certain economic sectors, primarily to those that do not depend solely on economic laws, but also on consumer psychology, such as tourism. These consequences may be particularly pronounced in developing countries, especially if there is also political instability, where tourism makes a big share of GDP and where a sudden decline in tourist arrivals and tourism revenues can greatly affect the overall economic growth of a country. However, in spite of the relatively high vulnerability of tourism to the phenomenon of terrorism, studies have mostly shown that this industry is recovering fairly quickly and that the effects of terrorism are not long-lasting provided terrorist campaign is not continuous or long-term. Therefore, to the question of whether terrorism affects the economic growth of a country, it could be shortly replied: yes, it probably affects it negatively, but the effect is situationally and temporally conditioned. Whether this effect will be statistically significant depends on a whole series of factors, most important of which is the gravity and persistence of terrorist acts or terrorist campaigns, the social, political and economic structure of the affected country, its income level and its dependence on the sectors more vulnerable to the effects of terrorism. Furthermore, the consequences that a particular state and society suffer from terrorism is often subjective and difficult to quantify objectively solely in mathematical and economic categories