Tumor growth rate as a metric of progression, response, and prognosis in pancreatic and intestinal neuroendocrine tumors

Background Lanreotide depot/autogel antitumor activity in intestinal/pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) was demonstrated in the phase-3 CLARINET study (NCT00353496), based on significantly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) versus placebo. Methods During CLARINET, patients with metastatic intestinal/pancreatic NETs received lanreotide depot/autogel 120 mg or placebo every 4 weeks for 96 weeks. Imaging data (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors [RECIST] v1.0, centrally reviewed) were re-evaluated in this post hoc analysis of tumor growth rate (TGR) in NETs. TGR (%/month) was calculated from two imaging scans during relevant periods: pre-treatment (TGR0); 12–24 weeks before randomization versus baseline; each treatment visit versus baseline (TGRTx-0); between consecutive treatment visits (TGRTx-Tx). To assess TGR as a measure of prognosis, PFS was compared for TGR0 subgroups stratified by optimum TGR0 cut-off; a multivariate analysis was conducted to identify prognostic factors for PFS. Results TGR0 revealed tumors growing during pre-treatment (median [interquartile range] TGR0: lanreotide 2.1%/month [0.2; 6.1]; placebo 2.7%/month [0.15; 6.8]), contrary to RECIST status. TGR was significantly reduced by 12 weeks with lanreotide versus placebo (difference in least-square mean TGR0–12 of − 2.9 [− 5.1, − 0.8], p = 0.008), a difference that was maintained at most subsequent visits. TGR0 > 4%/month had greater risk of progression/death than ≤4%/month (hazard ratio 4.1; [95% CI 2.5–6.5]; p < 0.001); multivariate analysis revealed lanreotide treatment, progression at baseline, TGR0, hepatic tumor load, and primary tumor type were independently associated with PFS. Conclusions TGR provides valuable information on tumor activity and prognosis in patients with metastatic intestinal/pancreatic NETs, and identifies early lanreotide depot/autogel antitumor activity. Trial registration Retrospective registration, 18 July 2006; EudraCT: 2005–004904-35; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00353496