Uma análise do impacto do Mercosul sobre o comércio de grãos e seus reflexos no setor agroindustrial e na economia brasileira

Using the Input-Output Tables for Brazil (1980) and the data base from Gutierres (1988) which refers to the grains competitivity between Argentina-Brazil, generated using linear programming, this work makes an examination of the probable intersectoral effects of the trade liberalization of grains in the MERCOSUL over the Brazilian economy, more specifically in the agricultural and agroindustrial sectors (national grain against imported) through price differential. One has found that the analyzed sectors are inclined to be more dependable on imports, with a decrease in their sectoral multipliers. It was also found from the different measures of linkages estimated, that the relative importance of the agricultural and agroindustrial sectors, in an environment of a common market, increases, making them fundamental sectors for the consolidation of the MERCOSUL. In general, the different sectoral strategies show different impacts on the total production and on imports, however, these impacts are greater in the agricultural sector than in the agroindustrial sectors