An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Yield Variability in Ethiopia

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on mean and variance of crop yields in Ethiopia over a period of 28 years. We used a stochastic production function and estimated the effects of belg and kiremt rainfall on crop yields and variances. We find that the effects of the seasonal rainfalls differ across crops and regions. Increases in kiremt rainfall increases average yields of all crop items and reduces their variability in the SNNP region, while higher belg rainfall maize yield and reduces its variability in Oromia region. A U shape relationship is observed between crop production technology and crop yields, except for maize. To analyze the effects of future climate on mean crop yields and variances, we employed the estimated results from crop models with climate data predicted from three climate models including CGCM2, PCM, and HadCM3. The simulation results show that negative impacts of future climate change entail serious damage on production of teff and wheat, but relatively maize yield will increase in 2050. Even if there exist losers and winners as a result of future climate change at regional levels, the future crop yield levels would largely depend on future technological development