Add to ORKGFive alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecasts produced by a macro-model of the French economy, the Mini-DMS developed at INSEE. They are bootstrap, analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, parametric stochastic simulation and re-estimation, a residual-based procedure. Due to the complexity and the size of the model (nonlinear and with more than 200 equations), several associated technical problems had to be solved. The remarkable convergence of results which has been obtained for all the main endogenous variables suggests that forecast confidence intervals are likely to be quite reliable for this model
Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the poten...
Based on Monte Carlo simulations using both stationary and nonstationary data, a model selection app...
When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into severa...
Five alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with t...
It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French econo...
Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts pro...
This paper is concerned with the contribution to forecast errors of errors in the estimated structur...
This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of...
In econometric models specified as systems of simultaneous equations, forecast errors can be regarde...
Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. ...
In the econometric literature simulation techniques are suggested for estimating standard errors of ...
Most of the methods proposed in the literature for evaluating forecast uncertainty in econometric mo...
Both future disturbances and estimated coefficients contribute to the uncertainty in model-based ex ...
This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a mac...
Economic downturn and recession that many countries experienced in the wake of the global financial ...
Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the poten...
Based on Monte Carlo simulations using both stationary and nonstationary data, a model selection app...
When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into severa...
Five alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with t...
It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French econo...
Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts pro...
This paper is concerned with the contribution to forecast errors of errors in the estimated structur...
This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of...
In econometric models specified as systems of simultaneous equations, forecast errors can be regarde...
Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. ...
In the econometric literature simulation techniques are suggested for estimating standard errors of ...
Most of the methods proposed in the literature for evaluating forecast uncertainty in econometric mo...
Both future disturbances and estimated coefficients contribute to the uncertainty in model-based ex ...
This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a mac...
Economic downturn and recession that many countries experienced in the wake of the global financial ...
Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the poten...
Based on Monte Carlo simulations using both stationary and nonstationary data, a model selection app...
When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into severa...