Transition event statistics in genetics and disordered kinetics. Theoretical approaches for extracting rate distributions from experimental data

We study the analogies between the theory of rate processes in disordered systems and the overdispersed molecular clocks in evolutionary biology. A biological “molecular clock” expresses the statistics of the number of amino acid or nucleotide substitutions during evolution. Random variations of the evolution rates lead to statistical (overdispersed) molecular clocks which are described by random point processes with random substitution rates. We find that the models for overdispersed molecular clocks are equivalent to those of the random-rate or random channel models used in disordered kinetics. The number of transport (reaction) events in disordered kinetics plays the same role as the number of substitution events in molecular biology. We study the connections between the (observed) statistics of the transition events and the statistics of random rate coefficients and random channels; a unified approach is developed which is valid both in molecular biology and in disordered kinetics. We develop methods for extracting statistical information about the variations of rate coefficients from experimental or observed data regarding the fluctuations of the numbers of substitution, reaction, or transport events. For systems with static disorder, the observed statistics of the number of reaction events, expressed in terms of probabilities at a given time or by the cumulants of the number of transition events at a given time, contains the information necessary for evaluating the cumulants or the probability density of the rate coefficients or the density of states for random channel kinetics. For dynamic disorder this is not possible; further information about multitime probability distributions of the reaction events is needed