Materials Demand in Global Energy Scenarios, Distribution of Stocks and the role of Recycling - The Case of Neodymium, Dysprosium, Lithium and Cobalt

Meeting the climate protection targets of the Paris agreement requires a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. However, low-carbon energy technologies often require larger amounts of critical minerals which may impede the transition to a low-carbon economy. We assess the requirements of neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy), lithium (Li) and cobalt (Co) until 2050 under recent, high impact global deep decarbonization energy scenarios. As critical elements are rarely used in heat generation technologies, we focused on power generation and storage as well as transport technologies. The analysis encompasses the identification of bottlenecks taking into account global resources, reserves and annual production quantities. Furthermore, the impact of material recycling on the balance between annual supply and demand is estimated. Finally, we assess the regional distribution of in stocks by 2050 to draw conclusions about changes in supply risks due to effective recycling of critical elements. Our study reveals that the annual metal demands for Nd, Dy and Li may rise dramatically until 2050, mainly driven by electric vehicles. In case the current trend towards ever larger, gearless wind turbines continues, wind power stations are another large consumer of Nd and Dy, while Li demand by stationary battery storage systems only plays a minor role in total Li consumption. It is not expected that potential material bottlenecks will be the reason for a failure to meet climate targets, as generally alternative materials or technologies – albeit with higher costs and / or lower efficiency – are available to substitute the “critical” technologies. However, it is crucial to include the costs of substituting technologies and recycling processes in future scenario development which may be pivotal for the structure of model-based generation portfolios and resulting political support efforts