Trending and forecasting in construction operations

This research aims to understand the process of progress reporting and forecasting project status of different future targeted dates. The study focuses mainly on trending and time/Cost control of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) project. A field study of the practices of the industrial collaborator (SNC-Lavalin), along with related materials from the literature, is conducted and documented. This research presents a model for improving trending and forecasting of time and cost in construction operations. The proposed model has 3 main functions: (1) trend estimate accuracy, (2) project progress integrated control and forecasting, and (3) progress visualization database. @Risk 5.0 for excel, Windows SharePoint Server and visual basic for application (VBA) are used to develop 3 add on tools implementing the above 3 functions. This model, with 3 developed add on tools, is designed to work together with industrial collaborator's project management system, PM+. The 1 st add on tool applies probabilistic forecasting to provide trend estimate results utilizing estimate range. Engineering completion percentage and self adjustment algorithm are both utilized to provide accuracy range reference. The 2 nd add on tool implements earned value method in project progress monitoring and forecasting. Numerous progress measurement templates for engineering, procurement and construction work are utilized for plan definition and earned measurement. The 3 rd add on tool provides a multimedia capability and an integration of scheduling tools and progress reports via relational database. Numerical examples based on a set of data from a training project provided by SNC are presented to illustrate and validate the essential features of the developed methodology and model