Random and systematic land-cover transitions in North-eastern Wollega, Ethiopia

Africa has seen significant changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC) across different scales. Changes in LULC include deforestation and subsequent use of the land for arable cropping, conversion to grassland or urbanization. The work reported in this article was conducted to examine land-cover transitions in north-eastern Wollega (Ethiopia) between 2005 and 2015. The analysis focused on land-cover transitions that occurred systematically or randomly, and it identified the main drivers for such changes. Landsat data from 2005 and 2015 was examined to better understand the various dimensions of land-cover transitions, namely: swap, loss, gain, persistency and vulnerability. Results showed that shrubland exhibited the highest gain (22%), gain-to-loss ratio (63%), gain-to-persistence ratio (47%), and positive net change-to-persistence ratio (46%). Cropland exhibited the highest loss (19%) whereas grassland was the most stable land-cover despite of some fluctuation (≈10%) observed during the 10-year period. The land-cover transition was dominated by systematic processes with only few random processes of change. Systematic land-cover transitions such as agricultural abandonment and vegetation re-growth were attributed to regular or common processes of change. This study suggests that implementation of practices conducive to sustainable intensification of existing agricultural land, supported by policies that promote increased diversification of Ethiopian agriculture, will likely mitigate pressure on forests by avoiding future conversion of such land into cropland