Comparative analysis of climate change adaptation options across the southern Australian livestock industry

Climate change is predicted to have a substantial negative effect on the productivity of grasslands across southern Australia (Moore and Ghahramani 2013). We used the GRAZPLAN biophysical simulation models to assess several possible grassland management and animal genetic improvement adaptations under SRES A2 climate change scenario. Simulations spanned the five dimensions of geography, time, global circulation models, enterprise, and adaptations. Impact of climate change was predicted to reduce profitability of livestock industry by 46%, 58%, and 72% at 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively. Increasing soil fertility could return the average profitability of five livestock enterprises to its historical level at 54%, 50%, and 25% of locations in 2030, 2050, and 2070. Increasing the proportion of Lucerne in pasture was effective for 35%, 22%, and 15% of locations in 2030, 2050, and 2070. Increasing fleece growth rates was the most effective genetic adaptation that could return profitability of sheep enterprises to its historical level for 24%, 52%, and 28% of locations in 2030, 2050, and 2070. Removing annual legumes in an attempt to preserve ground cover by replacing annual grass and larger sire body size were less effective options. The incremental adaptations we examined could significantly increase profitability of the enterprises at 2030. However, at many locations in drier regions it appears unlikely that a single adaptation can return profit to the historical level. In most of the high rainfall zone, systemic adaptation using a combination of grassland management and animal genetic improvement could return livestock systems to historical profitability in 2030 and 2050