Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: an econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the world. Using the Just–Pope production function as an analytical framework, this study assesses the impacts of climate variables on the mean and variability in yield of three major rice crops: Aus, Aman and Boro in Bangladesh for the period 1972–2009. The results reveal that the effects of changes in climate variables vary among the crops. Average maximum temperature emerges as risk-increasing for Aus and Aman rice while it is risk-decreasing for Boro rice yield. Mean minimum temperature is risk-increasing for Boro rice and risk decreasing for Aus and Aman crops. Finally, rainfall is risk-increasing for Aman rice whilst risk-decreasing for Aus and Boro rice. Regional dummies for some climate zones are also found to be statistically significant. Future climate change is expected to increase the variability of all three rice crops. However, the variability will be higher for Aman than Aus and Boro rice crops. These results have important implications for the allocation of agricultural land among the different rice crops and for devising appropriate climate zone specific adaptation policies to reduce rice yield variability and ensure food security in developing countries like Bangladesh