The Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections: Mayhew May Still be Right

Several theories have been advanced to explain the reduction in the number of competitive congressional districts during the past decade. Among these is Mayhew’s theory, which attributes the reduction to the increasing control of campaign resources by incumbents. Ferejohn presents evidence which casts doubt on Mayhew’s thesis. In this paper, Ferejohn’s evidence is examined within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. I conclude that Mayhew’s thesis, although bloodied by Ferejohn’s attack, is still very much alive