The economics of cotton in the Sudan with special reference to the Sudan Gezira scheme

Sudan, as many of the developing countries producing agricultural, primary commodities, is faced with the problem of inadequate and unstable export proceeds. Despite the growing disagreement on the causes and the consequences of this phenomena, it has been shown that for Sudan this is due to her concentration and export of one cash crop, extra long staple (ELS) cotton. This study, therefore, is an inquiry into the aspects governing the economics of ELS cotton production and marketing in Sudan and is based on empirical analysis. It needs emphasizing, however, that the accuracy of the estimates and the conclusiveness of the results are largely determined by the quality of data and the computational procedures applied. To this effect, the data available whether in details or length of the time series, is not adequately commensurate with the degree of sophistication implied in the type of regression analysis attempted. For example, the size of the sample is sometimes smaller than what would warrant adherence to the conventional significance test at 5% level. The results are, therefore, accepted in relative terms and should be interpreted in context of those constraints. The study is divided into seven chapters. Chapters 1-3 constitute an introductory part; the problem, position of agricultural sector and pattern of land use and a description of the institutional organization of the cotton sector (symbolized by the Gezira scheme) which, in addition to its unique experience it is believed to have some effects on the analysis attempted. Chapters 4-6 is an empirical analysis of the basic relationships of demand, supply and pricing policy of Sudan ELS cotton. Chapter 7 is a summary and discussion of the results obtained and their implications on cotton policy decisions. Broadly speaking, the results suggest that in view of the inelastic world demand for ELS cotton and growing competition from man-made fibres, Sudan must adjust her cotton production policy to the long-term prospects of demand. Diversification with other enterprises and processing activities should be encouraged. As has been suggested by the results obtained from supply and production function analysis, increased use of fertilizers and pesticides would favourably effect ELS cotton output and yields. More important is the need to reconsider the institutional set-up of the cotton sector so as to accommodate more incentives for the tenants while the large scale of the producing schemes must be preserved. Tenants are believed to respond positively to increasing incomes by putting more efforts On the other hand Sudan cotton in the individual export markets studied (U.K., France, Germany, F.R., Italy and India) appeared to have relatively high price elasticity as well as high cross price elasticity with the similar variety of Egypt. Despite these signs of keen competition and the fact that Egypt is the largest ELS cotton producer, Sudan, during the period of study seemed to have set her ELS cotton prices in a way that did not approximate to the assumptions of the oligopolistic market as postulated by economic theory for similar market situations. As Sudan, cannot afford to delay the disposal of her crop without experiencing serious adverse effects, it is believed that it is to the interest of both countries (Egypt and Sudan) to adopt some sort of a co-ordinated ELS cotton policy