Analysis of different scenarios and sustainability measurement in the district heating sector in Serbia

The district heating system in Serbia, with an installed capacity of 6,600 MW, currently supplies 58 towns with thermal energy. As a candidate country for accession to the European Union, Serbia faces the obligation to reduce the level of its greenhouse gas emissions as part of environmental reforms. This paper presents a basic scenario and three alternatives for final energy consumption in the district heating sector for the years 2015, 2020 and 2025. It is suggested that demand for heating will increase 10% up to 2020 and by 15% up to2025, in relation to 2015 levels, while the share of each energy carrier will not change. Changing the structure of energy sources for heat supply assumes a decrease in the share of coal and liquid fuel, and increases in the use of biomass and natural gas. The results obtained were compared to the General Index of Sustainability which is a measure of the complexity of the proposed energy scenario. The paper considers the formation of related energy indicators as quantitative tools for the analysis of changes. It also proposes a methodology for multi-criteria analysis in the sustainability assessment of complex energy systems based on the stochastic evaluation of criteria (sets of indicators and sub-indicators). In this way, the results of the multi-criteria assessment can help in the decision-making process in cases where economic, social and ecological criteria are considered to be influential. © 2018 Serbian Society of Heat Transfer Engineers