Add to ORKGThis thesis aims to explore the effect of overconfidence on people's decision making. To approach this topic, a standard binary detection problem is considered, and its associated individual decision rule and decision fusion rule are derived. Following an axiomatic and empirical approach, a variant of the Prelec function from cumulative prospect theory is then developed to model the effect of overconfidence as a function of level of training. Next, the probability of detection after decision fusion is derived, and a combinatorial optimization is considered which aims to select a subgroup of people/agents to maximize the overall probability of detection.Ope
AbstractKnowing what we don't yet know is critical for learning. Nonetheless, people typically overe...
International audienceIn perceptual decision making, it is often found that human observers combine ...
We conduct a proper test of the claim that people are overconfident, in the sense that they believe ...
This thesis aims to explore the effect of overconfidence on people's decision making. To approach t...
191 pagesThere is a vast literature that examines differences in overconfidence between people, depe...
Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overconfident in the sense that they overestim...
This paper reports findings of a laboratory experiment, which explores how elfassessment regarding t...
We conduct two experiements of the claim that people are overconfident. We develop new tests of over...
Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overconfident in the sense that they overestim...
Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations...
According to a wide literature persons are not able to evaluate their own skills and knowledge, but ...
In this paper, we study the individual payoff effects of overconfident self-perception in teams. In ...
This paper explores the effectiveness of several methods to reduce the overconfidence bias when elic...
This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic de...
AbstractKnowing what we don't yet know is critical for learning. Nonetheless, people typically overe...
International audienceIn perceptual decision making, it is often found that human observers combine ...
We conduct a proper test of the claim that people are overconfident, in the sense that they believe ...
This thesis aims to explore the effect of overconfidence on people's decision making. To approach t...
191 pagesThere is a vast literature that examines differences in overconfidence between people, depe...
Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overconfident in the sense that they overestim...
This paper reports findings of a laboratory experiment, which explores how elfassessment regarding t...
We conduct two experiements of the claim that people are overconfident. We develop new tests of over...
Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overconfident in the sense that they overestim...
Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations...
According to a wide literature persons are not able to evaluate their own skills and knowledge, but ...
In this paper, we study the individual payoff effects of overconfident self-perception in teams. In ...
This paper explores the effectiveness of several methods to reduce the overconfidence bias when elic...
This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic de...
AbstractKnowing what we don't yet know is critical for learning. Nonetheless, people typically overe...
International audienceIn perceptual decision making, it is often found that human observers combine ...
We conduct a proper test of the claim that people are overconfident, in the sense that they believe ...