An investigation into supply chain risk factors and their impact on performance of humanitarian pharmaceutical supply chain in Sub-Sahara Africa - A case study of the supply chain system for UNICEF Tanzania

This thesis investigated the presence of supply chain risk factors and their impact on performance of humanitarian health programs in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly UNICEF Tanzania. Supply Chain Risk management (SCRM) approach has become a major contributor to supply chain performance and to program/business success. The aim of this study was to contribute to professional practice by suggesting risk management approach (prioritisation and mitigation) as the one possible solution to the criticism that; “Supply chain management is our Achilles heel; we receive the most criticism for this” (UNICEF 2014). This criticism triggered this research whose aim was to systematically identify, prioritise and mitigate critical risk factors that impact on supply chain performance metrics of time, cost and quality. To achieve this aim, this study addressed two key research questions of risk prioritisation and risk treatment. A number of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) studies available in literature mainly identified risks factors without much focus on prioritisation using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) methodology. This enquiry was abductive in reasoning and mixed methods in approach using process FMEA to quantify and analyse process risks. Besides being industry relevant, the benefit of using FMEA for this investigation included an increased focus on most imminent risks, prioritisation of risks and development of effective risk mitigation strategies. The research findings confirmed that poor risk management is the primary cause of poor supply chain performance. It also found a causal relationship between detection capability and likelihood of occurrence on a few of the risks, and a zero relationship on most risks tested. Overall, the research confirmed the proposition that effective supply chain risk management approach (prioritisation and mitigation/treatment) contributes to an improvement in supply chain performance of health programs in Sub Saharan Africa. The research findings matter in that the established risk profiles by performance metrics of delivery time, cost and quality (the SCRM Iceberg Model) can be used by supply chain managers to anticipate and proactively manage the potential risks found in their operations. The knowledge on the relationship between investment on risk detection capability and the reduction in risk occurrence challenges managers to re-assess the potential benefit of every investment on risk detection. The suggested context specific challenges and opportunities identified in this study, if applied rationally can help effectively manage supply chain risks for humanitarian operations in Sub-Saharan Africa and similar context globally