Post-millennial beverage trends and the relationship between price and food/beverage intakes and purchases in the U.S. preschooler

Improving preschooler (ages 2-5y) diet has become an important strategy for preventing excess weight gain in children. However, there has been little focus on changes in the intakes of beverages among U.S. preschoolers during the past decade. Meanwhile, imposing taxes on beverages high in sugar and/or fat in an effort to discourage their intake among the general population has become a prominent strategy. Yet, how such taxes relate to food/beverage purchases and intakes among U.S. preschool children and their households is unclear. We examined trends in beverage intakes among U.S. preschool children between 2003 and 2012 using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Next, we used data from the Nielsen Homescan Panel (2009-2012) to examine the relationship between beverage prices and food/beverage purchases in U.S. households with a preschool child. We estimated a two-part marginal effects model (probit and ordinary least squares regression) to simulate `taxes' on SSBs, or SSB and >1% fat/high-sugar milks of 10%, 15%, and 20%. We then extended our analysis to include years 2003-2012 of the Homescan data in order to estimate demand relationships for 10 years of data corresponding to survey years 2003-2012 in NHANES. Resulting demand relationships from Homescan were applied to dietary data from NHANES to predict changes in caloric intakes among U.S. preschool children with 10%, 15% and 20% increases in the prices of SSBs. We found that between 2003-04 and 2011-12, among 2-5 year olds, total caloric intake from beverages decreased fell by 55 kcal/d, which was mostly due to decreased intakes of juice drinks, soft drinks, and >1% fat, low-sugar milk. In our analysis of 2009-2012 Homescan data, we found that price increase of 10%, 15%, and 20% on SSBs were predicted to decrease purchases of juice drinks, and increase purchases of low-fat, low-sugar milk and 100% juice among households with a preschool child. Lastly, our simulations using Homescan and NHANES years 2003-2012 showed that a 20% increase in the price of SSBs was predicted to decrease caloric intakes from total SSBs, and total beverages among U.S. preschool children. Our findings show significant decreases in beverage intakes among U.S. preschoolers between 2003-04 and 2011-12, to which decreases in caloric intakes from SSBs were a major contributor. Our study also provides further evidence in support of a tax on SSBs, which may be associated with decreases purchases and intakes of beverages high in sugar and/or fat among U.S. preschool children and their households.Doctor of Philosoph