Estimation of the PCR efficiency based on a size-dependent modelling of the amplification process

We propose a stochastic modelling of the PCR amplification process by a size-dependent branching process starting as a supercritical Bienaym\ue9-Galton-Watson transient phase and then having a saturation near-critical size-dependent phase. This model based on the concept of saturation allows one to estimate the probability of replication of a DNA molecule at each cycle of a single PCR trajectory with a very good accuracy