A Study on the Methodology to Construct a Local Housing Market Cycle

Although many previous studies have focused on the fluctuation of housing price after controling for selective macro economic variables, the periodic analysis of the residential real estate market was criticized as a result of the choice of a single index. Thus, This study attempts to construct a model base on the general equilibrium model which considers macro-economic indicators and then identify the equilibrium model in real estate market. Using the dynamic factor model, we identify the relationship between this general equilibrium model and dynamic real estate model. Furthermore, we also improve the methodology of selection of weight on the sub-index in the housing market using Stock-Watson instead of arbitrary selection of weight. Thus, Our forecasting model is rather systematic reflection of sub-index using Stock-Watson dynamic factor model. The results provide a relative cyclical behavior of patterns whether or not the markets in 16 provinces are overheating or contracting stage. We expect that provides policy implication for the government with an appropriate timing of market intervention to stabilize or stimulate the housing market.??? ????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ?????? ??? ????????? ??????·???????????????