Developing Extreme Drought Scenarios for Seoul based on the Long Term Precipitation Including Paleoclimatic Data

??? ??????????????? ??????????????? ????????????(Extreme Drought)??? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ??????(1777~1907???)??? ??????????????? ????????? ?????????(1908~2015???) ?????? ??? ??????????????????????????? ????????? ?????????(2011~2099???) ????????? ????????? 300??? ????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ???????????????. ????????? ????????????, ???????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ???????????? ????????? ??????????????????, ???????????? ??????????????? SPI??? ?????? Wavelet transform ???????????? ???????????? ????????????????????? ??????????????? 64~80??????(5~6???), ??????????????????????????? 96~128??????(8~10???) ????????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ????????????. Dry spell ????????????????????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ??????, ??? · ??????, ????????????????????? ??????????????? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ????????????. ??????, ???????????? ????????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????? 1901?????? ????????? ??????????????? ???????????????, 1899~1907?????? ?????????????????? ????????? ???????????? ??? 9??? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????? ????????????. In this study, long-term rainfall data of more than 300 years including the paleoclimatic rainfall data from Chuk Woo Kee (1777-1907), the modern observed rainfall data (1908-2015), and the climate change scenario (2016-2099), which were provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Agency), was used to analyze the statistical characteristics of the extreme drought in the Seoul., Annual average rainfall showed an increasing trend over a entire period, and Wavelet transform analysis of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) which is meteorological drought index, showed 64 to 80 months (5-6 Year) of drought periods for Chuk Woo Kee and KMA data, 96 to 128 months (8 to 10 years) of drought period for climate change data. The dry spell analysis showed that the drought occurrence frequency in the ancient period was high, but frequency was gradually decreased in the modern and future periods. In addition, through the analysis of the drought magnitude, 1901 was the extreme drought year in Seoul, and 1899-1907 was the worst consecutive 9 years long term drought in Seoul