Improved Methodology for Determining the Value of Energy from Distributed Renewables Using Statistical Analysis Combined with Normative Scenarios

AbstractThe financial benefits of a distributed electric generation facility cannot be calculated without an expectation of the electricity's market value. Prediction of long-term future prices is a difficult but mandatory task, which is often reduced to constant annual prices with steady annual growth rates. This study provides a methodology for predicting electricity prices at an hourly resolution for long-term analysis, using the Swedish case as an example. It includes a statistical examination of historical data inspired by the meteorology sector to create a “typical year” of hourly price values. Future prices are calculated by applying annual rate changes to the typical year curve, using a monthly resolution to allow for seasonal variations. Rate changes are predicted using historical trends and current market conditions for near-term prices, and a normative scenario for mid- to long-term prices. The resulting methodology can be used in part or whole for any market in which historical data is available and a normative scenario created