Geostatistics Tailored to Address Nitrates Spatial Uncertainty in Groundwater (Douro Watershed, Spain)

AbstractThe management of water resources is a priority for development of the places and welfare of people that supply, especially in water bodies most affected by anthropic pressures. Moreover, the increasing of sudden and extreme climatic phenomena appearance urges to resource planning in specific situations. In this research, the evolution of the piezometric surface has been simulated as the basis of a flow model draft, in the karstic aquifer of Cuellar Moor, located in the Douro watershed, all along the hydrologic years between 2010 and 2012. The use of geostatistical tools has been the starting point for estimating the piezometric surfaces, based on the median values. From the point of view of planning two scenarios showing extreme situations have been simulated: one of them synthesizes the most favorable conditions, in which piezometric level is at the recorded highest median levels (wet scenario); and the other one synthesizes the toughest conditions with the lowest recorded median piezometric levels (dry scenario). It likewise shows the estimated nitrate concentrations surface