China's Energy Demand Scenario Analysis in 2030

AbstractIn order to forecast energy demand in China in the next 20 years, this paper firstly analyzes the current situation of China's energy consumption, and then apply LEAP model to simulate primary energy and final energy demand in 2020, 2030 under different scenario composition about economic development, energy efficiency and energy structure. The results show that: the total primary energy demand will reach 4840-5070 Mtce in 2020, 5580-5870 Mtce in 2030; the share of coal in primary energy will decrease, and that of oil, natural gas and non-fossil energy sources will increase. For all the three economic growth scenarios, 40-45% carbon emission intensity reduction target can be realized. If non-fossil energy can be further developed, carbon emission intensity can reduce more than 45% by 2020. The goal of the 15% share of non-fuel energy in primary energy is difficult to realize, unless the most development potentials of hydro power, nuclear power and wind power can be reached