Wild Cards in Polish Foresight Practice

AbstractThe main purpose of the article is to introduce a new methodology for improved intelligence on wild cards (low- predictability, high impact events) identification. The research process embraced such research methods as literature review, survey research, the method of critical analysis and construction identification, and a case study which served as an example of a practical application of the designed methodology A detailed characteristic of the new methodology implementation is presented on the basis of a technology foresight project titled NT FOR Podlaskie 2020. Regional strategy of nanotechnology development. In the course of this project, eight wild cards have been finally indicated (out of 53 suggested by the experts). Their originality, importance, pace of change, range of impact, uncertainty of result and time of occurrence have been evaluated and recommendations for science, business and administration have been made. The methodology may be used as a benchmark of wild cards identification in the strategic management practice