Simulation of the Precipitation Scenarios on the River Catchment with Consideration of the Climatic Changes

AbstractUsually parameters of water reservoirs are determined on the base of water balance equation with discreteness 10 days (decade). The values of such equation are calculated on the data base for the long time series. Last half of century is observed a change of different climatic characteristics, in particularity precipitations, which are an element of water balance and has very significant influence on runoff to water reservoir. Consequently there is need to simulate precipitation according to last time of series which has more short duration but more reality. However we must take to consideration a big amount of different scenarios of precipitation both for annual values and for the internal year intervals.Accordingly main purpose of the scientific work is the checking of the method for simulation artificial rows of precipitation according to climatic changes. The next problems were decided: determination of statistical parameters and trends according to data observation for the precipitation; assessment of stationary of the time series of observations; simulation of artificial rows of precipitation according to climatic changes; check of the method for simulation artificial rows of precipitation.Object of research was chosen a catchment of water reservoir of Moscow region.The method Monte Carlo (variant of fragments) was used for simulation of precipitation on territory of the river catchment. The results have showed that the used method can be applied for simulation of precipitation for the studied object. It is obviously that the method must be verified for each object, and if it is necessary-the method may be changed