Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

AbstractThe International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used for the assessment of the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario (ACT) with an associated CO2 reduction incentive development, and a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 50% compared to current levels in 2050 (BLUE). The analysis suggests that CCS can account for up to 19% of all CO2 reduction in 2050, which would equal 10.4 Gt CO2 capture and storage. The power sector would account for 54% of all CCS, the remainder is in manufacturing industry and the fuel transformation sector.CCS is a critical option. Without CCS, the cost to meet the same target would rise by 71%. The potential rate at which CCS can be introduced exceeds the rate at which regular capital stock is typically replaced, if plants are retrofitted or closed down before the end of their technical life span. Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS plays a very significant role in the ACT Map scenario. But at the price of USD 200/t CO2 envisaged in the BLUE scenario, there is sufficient economic incentive to accelerate the replacement of inefficient power plants with new plants equipped with CCS before the existing plants reach the end of their life span. In the BLUE scenario, 350 GW of coal-fired power-plant capacity is closed down early. The remaining 700 GW consists of 80% new capacity that is equipped with CCS, and 20% retrofits with CCS.Following IEA recommendations, the G8 countries have announced that they will commit 20 demonstration plants for CCS by 2010. Also the G8, China India and Korea have asked the IEA to continue its work on roadmaps and transition paths for CCS in power generation and in industry, in cooperation with other bodies such as CSLF. This work has started and final results will be reported in 2010