Estimating the impact of climate change and local operational procedures on the energy use in several supermarkets throughout Great Britain

AbstractPossible changes in gas and electricity consumption in supermarkets throughout Great Britain have been investigated for the 2030s in order to assist decision makers with choices relating to energy use. In addition to this, two operational procedures, which vary between supermarkets, were investigated to see if a link between them and differences in energy consumption could be established. To achieve these aims, seven similar supermarkets were identified and their data analysed to derive their energy signatures through simple and change point regression analysis. These models were then combined with data from climate change prediction project UKCP09 for different probabilities (10%, 50% and 90%) of temperature increase in order to calculate changes in future energy use. In addition it was investigated if a linear regression model between the selected operational procedures and electricity use could be established.The results showed that, compared with the base period 1961–1990, the mean values of the annual average temperature for these seven supermarkets was predicted to rise by 2.0°C or 20% for the central estimate. This led to an estimate of an increase in average electricity consumption of 2% and an average drop in the gas usage of 10%. The result also showed that differences in operational practices seem to have little impact on the in-store energy use. Differences in gas use models between stores can be more credibly explained by the building volume