Comparing large scale CCS deployment potential in the USA and China: A detailed analysis based on country-specific CO2 transport & storage cost curves

AbstractThe United States and China are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world and their projected continued growth and reliance on fossil fuels–especially coal–make them strong candidates for the large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) systems in a greenhouse gas constrained world. Previous work has revealed that both nations have over 1600 large electric utility and other industrial point CO2 sources as well as very large CO2 storage resources on the order of 2000 billion metric tons (Gt) of onshore storage capacity. In each case, the vast majority of this capacity is found in deep saline formations. In both the USA and China, candidate storage reservoirs are likely to be widely accessible with over 80% of these large industrial CO2 sources having a CO2 storage option within just 80 km. This suggests a strong potential for CCS to help bring about meaningful, sustained CO2 emissions reductions for these large, vibrant economies. However, while the USA and China possess many similarities with regards to the potential value that CCS might provide, including the range of costs at which CCS may be available to most large CO2 sources in each nation, there are a number of more subtle differences that may help us to understand the ways in which CCS deployment may differ as the the two nations work together–and in step with the rest of the world–to most efficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper details the first ever analysis of CCS deployment costs in these two countries based on methodologically comparable CO2 source and sink inventories, economic analysis, geospatial source-sink matching and cost curve modeling. This type of analysis provides valuable insight into the degree to which early and sustained opportunities for climate change mitigation via commercial-scale CCS are available to the two countries, and could facilitate greater collaboration in areas where those opportunities overlap