Forecast for construction engineering risk based on fuzzy sets and systems theory

AbstractRisk management is a critical point of successful construction engineering in modern corporations, and furthermore, risk forecast provides a very important foundation for risk management. In order to forecast risk effectively and quantitatively, the fuzzy sets and systems theory is applied. According to the hierarchy of construction engineering risks, the risk system is established; depending on the expert meeting law and the Delphi, the forecast sets and weight sets of risk are completed; applying the fuzzy theory, the various levels of risks and holistic risk of construction engineering are forecasted; combining the maximum degree of membership, the weighted-average method and the fuzzy distribution method, the conclusion of forecast is put forward; in the light of the demand in construction engineering, the risks may be forecasted again after the control and transfer measures of risk have been made; thus, the risk forecast model is developed. To illustrate the rationality and practicability of this model, a case study will be demonstrated