A New Model Using Routinely Available Clinical Parameters to Predict Significant Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B

We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) based on routinely available clinical parameters.237 treatment-naïve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108) and validation group (n = 129). Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed.T) index predicts significant fibrosis with an area under the receiving operating characteristics (AUROC) curve of 0.776 [0.797 for patients with ALT <2×upper limit of normal (ULN)] The negative predictive value to exclude significant fibrosis was 88.4%. This predictive power is superior to other non-invasive models using common parameters, including the AST/platelet/GGT/AFP (APGA) index, AST/platelet ratio index (APRI), and the FIB-4 index (AUROC of 0.757, 0.708 and 0.723 respectively). Using the PAPAS index, 67.5% of liver biopsies for patients being considered for treatment with ALT