The condition of Australia's marine environment is good but in decline—An integrated evidence-based national assessment by expert elicitation

AbstractThe condition and trend of 196 marine environment components were assessed for Australia's national 2011 State of the Environment Report using professional judgements derived by expert elicitation. The judgements from the diverse group of field-experienced scientists and practitioners were assembled within a single framework common to all components to provide an integrated system-level assessment. Components assessed included the natural environmental assets and values in biodiversity, ecosystem health, and the pressures. A high level of agreement was achieved amongst the disciplines and experts on the decision structure and the scores or grades, even though many components are data-poor at the national scale. The assessment confirmed the clear association between human development history and extant condition of the biodiversity and ecosystem health. Overall, the marine environment was considered to be in good condition relative to conditions prior to European colonisation of the Australian mainland. However, more components of the biodiversity were considered to be deteriorating than improving, inferring that the overall quality of ecosystems is in decline. Combined present-day pressures were considered to be greatest in the temperate and the coastal waters (