Confidence and performance in probabilistic inference tasks with intercorrelated cues

Armelius, B-Å, and Amelius, K. Confidence and performance in probabilistic inference tasks with intercorrelated cues. Umeå Psychological Reports No. 96, 1976. - The relation between confidence and subjects' beliefs about their performance as well as their actual performance was studied in five two-cue MCPL-tasks. The tasks varied with respect to task predictability. The results were that confidence was strongly related to believed performance, but not to actual performance. The lack of relation between believed and actual performance was interpreted as support for the notion that subjects know very little about their performance in MCPL-tasks. Confidence was also perfectly related to task predictability, while performance was not. This may in certain tasks cause an illusion of achievement, i.e. subjects feel more confident than their performance allows them to.digitalisering@um