Nomogram using transrectal ultrasound-derived information predicting the detection of high grade prostate cancer on initial biopsy

PurposeTo develop a nomogram using transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-derived information for predicting high grade (HG) prostate cancer (PCa) on initial biopsy.MethodsData were collected on 1,048 men with serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels 4.0 to 9.9 ng/mL who underwent an initial prostate biopsy. Two logistic regression-based nomograms were constructed to predict the detection of PCa. Nomogram-1 incorporated age, digital rectal examination, PSA and percent free PSA data, whereas nomogram-2 incorporated those factors plus TRUS-derived information (i.e., prostate volume and the presence of hypoechoic lesions). The prediction of any PCa and HGPCa (Gleason score≥7) were determined. Twenty percent of the data were randomly reserved for study validation, and the predictive accuracies of the two nomograms were directly compared.ResultsOf the 1,048 men who underwent biopsy, 216 (20.6%) were found to have any PCa, and 97 (9.3%) were found to have HGPCa. All six risk factors were found to be independent predictors for both any PCa and HGPCa. The area under curve (AUC) for nomogram-2 was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 0.81) for predicting any PCa, and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.88) for predicting HGPCa. These AUCs were greater than those for nomogram-1 (0.72 [95% CI, 0.68 to 0.76 for any PCa; P<0.001], 0.78 [95% CI, 0.72 to 0.83 for HGPCa; P