Relating multi-sequence longitudinal intensity profiles and clinical covariates in incident multiple sclerosis lesions

AbstractThe formation of multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions is a complex process involving inflammation, tissue damage, and tissue repair — all of which are visible on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and potentially modifiable by pharmacological therapy. In this paper, we introduce two statistical models for relating voxel-level, longitudinal, multi-sequence structural MRI intensities within MS lesions to clinical information and therapeutic interventions: (1) a principal component analysis (PCA) and regression model and (2) function-on-scalar regression models. To do so, we first characterize the post-lesion incidence repair process on longitudinal, multi-sequence structural MRI from 34 MS patients as voxel-level intensity profiles. For the PCA regression model, we perform PCA on the intensity profiles to develop a voxel-level biomarker for identifying slow and persistent, long-term intensity changes within lesion tissue voxels. The proposed biomarker's ability to identify such effects is validated by two experienced clinicians (a neuroradiologist and a neurologist). On a scale of 1 to 4, with 4 being the highest quality, the neuroradiologist gave the score on the first PC a median quality rating of 4 (95% CI: [4,4]), and the neurologist gave the score a median rating of 3 (95% CI: [3,3]). We then relate the biomarker to the clinical information in a mixed model framework. Treatment with disease-modifying therapies (p<0.01), steroids (p<0.01), and being closer to the boundary of abnormal signal intensity (p