Climate Change & Home Location Preferences in Flood Prone Areas of Bojonegoro Regency

AbstractClimate change has already happened in Indonesia; as strong evidence of the climatic events is flooding that frequently happened. Flooding frequencies in Bengawan Solo River Side Buffer of Bojonegoro Regency are relatively high, about 16 flooding events in 2010. Because of the flooding, government of Bojonegoro Regency built levees for flood protection. About 1.100 houses were built in Bengawan Solo River Side Buffer which is vulnerable to flooding every year, outside the protected area and the space between houses and the river is about 1 to 5 meters in average. The interesting part of this phenomenon is that people decide to choose their home locations outside the protected area, and this happens from generation to generation. The research questions are formulated as: (1) How is the vulnerability in the flood prone area? (2) What is the most influencing factor of the home location decision making in the flood prone areas? The method to answer the first research question was the vulnerability index and the second research question was answered with Structural Equation Model (SEM). Vulnerability analysis showed that Jetak hamlet, Klangon hamlet, LedokWetan and LedokKulon and Banjarejo hamlet are high vulnerability areas. Some factors that influenced the decision to choose home location in the flood prone areas in low vulnerability are shell, especially in the disaster evacuation path (X22). For the medium vulnerability type, the most influence variable is society focused on law and administration (X16). In high vulnerability, the regression model explains that the most influential parameter from the society variable is the membership and activity of the inhabitants in social organizations (X11)