Complexity Based Risk Evaluation in Engineered Systems

AbstractThis work proposes a novel approach to augment program risk management processes by introducing complexity-based risk evaluation which potentially exposes risks that would have otherwise been neglected. The approach is to determine the complexity-based risks by first evaluating system, observer, and behavior entropy models. The suggested metrics created by the models provide the framework for generating complexity-based risks. The results can be used by program management to aid in decision-making processes. The results can also be shared with customers to determine any appropriate short and long-term mitigation actions. The suggested metric are applied to a sample case study. Future work will include impact analysis and mitigation strategies for complexity-based risks