Risk factors for rupture of abdominal aortic aneurysm based on three-dimensional study

AbstractPurpose: Factors influencing the development or rupture of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) have not yet been confirmed. This study delineated the risk factors for rupture of AAAs as evaluated by means of a combination of three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction and clinical data analysis. Methods: The study population comprised Japanese patients in whom an atherosclerotic AAA had been diagnosed between January 1980 and December 1997. We obtained 3D-based data by means of computer-aided 3D reconstruction from computed tomography studies of AAAs. The data included the tortuosity of the aneurysm, maximum transverse diameter, length of the aneurysm, aneurysmal volume, aneurysmal surface area, largest aneurysmal cross-sectional area, ratio of transverse aneurysmal diameter to the length of the aneurysm (T/L), and amount of mural thrombus. Clinical data were collected from patient files. All data were assessed by means of multivariate analysis for their predictive value for expansion or rupture of AAA. Results: The most efficient predictor of annual expansion rate of maximum transverse diameter (EX-D) was a combination of largest aneurysmal cross-sectional area, tobacco use, and tortuosity. The most efficient predictor of annual expansion rate of aneurysmal volume (EX-V) was a combination of aneurysmal volume and blood urea nitrogen level. The most efficient predictors of aneurysmal rupture was a combination of EX-D, diastolic blood pressure, and T/L. Conclusion: Three-dimensional–based data on aneurysmal morphology, including T/L, largest aneurysmal crosssectional area, and aneurysmal volume, had strong predictive value for expansion and rupture of AAAs. (J Vasc Surg 2001;33:453-61.