Development and internal validation of a clinical rule to improve antibiotic use in children presenting to primary care with acute respiratory tract infection and cough: a prognostic cohort study

SummaryBackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is a serious threat to public health, with most antibiotics prescribed in primary care. General practitioners (GPs) report defensive antibiotic prescribing to mitigate perceived risk of future hospital admission in children with respiratory tract infections. We developed a clinical rule aimed to reduce clinical uncertainty by stratifying risk of future hospital admission.Methods8394 children aged between 3 months and 16 years presenting with acute cough (for ≤28 days) and respiratory tract infection were recruited to a prognostic cohort study from 247 general practitioner practices in England. Exposure variables included demographic characteristics, parent-reported symptoms, and physical examination signs. The outcome was hospital admission for respiratory tract infection within 30 days, collected using a structured, blinded review of medical records.Findings8394 (100%) children were included in the analysis, with 78 (0·9%, 95% CI 0·7%–1·2%) admitted to hospital: 15 (19%) were admitted on the day of recruitment (day 1), 33 (42%) on days 2–7; and 30 (39%) on days 8–30. Seven characteristics were independently associated (p<0·01) with hospital admission: age