Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Results for Energy Applications in Latvia

AbstractWind power forecasting greatly relies on wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a reliable source of meteorological forecasts and they can also be used in wind resource assessment. In this work we carry out the verification of wind speed results from the NWP model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), grid resolution - 3km. Results from 172 model runs in May and November 2013 are compared with meteorological observations in 24 stations in Latvia.The model usually predicts wind speed values that are larger than the observed and the diurnal cycle has a large impact on verification results. Verification results obtained by interpolating model results between gridpoints to the exact station location are compared with results acquired using values from the nearest gridpoint. This distinction is significant in coastal stations. The influence of wind speed and wind direction on model error is analyzed