Appropriate complexity landscape modeling

AbstractAdvances in computing technology, new and ongoing restoration initiatives, concerns about climate change's effects, and the increasing interdisciplinarity of research have encouraged the development of landscape-scale mechanistic models of coupled ecological-geophysical systems. However, communication barriers and uneven infiltration of new strategies for data-driven induction persist in the context of simulation model development across disciplines. One challenge is that ecology and the geosciences have embraced different modeling epistemologies, with ecologists historically favoring inductive inference from generalized, phenomenological models and geoscientists favoring deductive inference from detailed first-principles models. Today, many models used for environmental management, particularly for aquatic ecosystems, tend to be highly detailed, with ecological and geophysical components represented in different modules that are linked but often not closely integrated. These observations highlight a need for cross-disciplinary dialogue about landscape-scale modeling objectives and approaches. The philosophies of pattern-oriented modeling in ecology and exploratory modeling in geophysics have yielded advances in theoretical and applied knowledge in both of those disciplines, but they are not comprehensive across all aspects of landscape-scale modeling. Here we define and synthesize the “Appropriate-Complexity Method” (ACME), which builds upon these two philosophies to guide the development of process-oriented models across a spectrum of scientific and management objectives. ACME helps modelers efficiently converge upon an optimal modeling structure through: i) systematic evaluation of the attributes that comprise computational and representational detail, for which we have developed an operational decision tree; ii) iterative adjustment of models based on pattern-oriented model evaluation strategies; and iii) the use of appropriate datasets (where applicable) to build conceptual models and formulate predictions. Decisions about aspects of computational and representational detail are based on the landscape's emergent properties. They are also based on a hierarchy of classes of questions governing model objectives that represent a multi-attribute tradeoff among validation potential, interpretability, tractability, and generality as functions of computational and representational detail. Tradeoff curves, together with model objectives, provide further guidance for determining the “appropriate” level of complexity for representation of processes in models. Once deemed adequate for addressing the original research question of interest, models may be used for projection and scenario testing. They may next undergo expansion that moves them down the hierarchy, where they can then be used to address research questions of higher specificity, detail, and validation potential, though at a cost of lower tractability and interpretability on the tradeoff curves. This practical, systematic procedure provides clear guidance for the design and improvement of landscape models that may be used to address a wide variety of questions relevant to restoration, over a spectrum of scales