Assessing the Driving Forces in Vegetation Dynamics Using Net Primary Productivity as the Indicator: A Case Study in Jinghe River Basin in the Loess Plateau

An objective and effective method to distinguish the influence of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics has great significance in the design and implementation of ecosystem restoration projects. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote data and the Miami and Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model, this study simulated and used net primary productivity (NPP) as an indicator to identify vegetation dynamics and their driving forces in the Jinghe River basin from 2000 to 2014. The results showed that: (1) The vegetation in the Jinghe River basin, which accounted for 84.4% of the study area, showed an increasing trend in NPP; (2) Human activities contributed most to vegetation restoration, which accounted for 54.5% of the areas; 24.0% of the areas showed an increasing trend in the NPP that was dominated by climate factors. Degradation dominated by human activities accounted for 4.3% of the study area, and degradation dominated by climate factors resulted in 17.2%; (3) The rate of vegetation degradation in areas dominated by climate factors rose with increased slope, where the arid climate caused shortages of water resources, and the human-dominated vegetation restoration activities exacerbated the vegetation’s water demand further, which surpassed the carrying capacity of regional water resources and led ultimately to vegetation degradation. We recommend that future ecological restoration programs pay more attention to maintaining the balance between ecosystem restoration and water resource demand to maximize the benefits of human activities and ensure the vegetation restoration is ecologically sustainable