Potential urban distribution of Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi and Phlebotomus neglectus Tonn. (Diptera: Psychodidae) in 2021-50 in Budapest, Hungary

Background & objectives: In the Carpathian Basin, the most northern populations of Phlebotomus (sandfly) species, including the two studied species (Phlebotomus mascittii and Phlebotomus neglectus), are reported from central Hungary. The most important limiting factor of the distribution of Phlebotomus species in the region is the annual minimum temperature which may be positively affected by the urban heat island and the climate change in the future. The main objective of the study is to prove and predict the overwintering possibility of Phlebotomus species in urban environment. Methods: Based on the latest reports of occurrence of sandfly species, climate envelope model was built for the period 1961-90 and 2025-50 to project the potential urban distribution of the species. The climatic data were obtained from RegCM regional climate model and MODIS satellite images. Results: The recent occurrence of the species in central Hungary indicates that Phlebotomus species can overwinter in non-heated shelters in built environment. Interpretation & conclusion: Jointly heat island and the increase of minimum temperature in winter due to climate change seem to be able to provide suitable environment for the studied species in urban areas to a great extent