Exploring City Development Modes under the Dual Control of Water Resources and Energy-Related CO2 Emissions: The Case of Beijing, China

Water and energy are basic resources for urban development. It is of extreme importance to balance economic development, water and energy security, and environmental sustainability at the city level. Although many studies have focused on energy-related CO2 emissions or water resources, individually, in relation to socioeconomic development, few studies have considered water and energy-related CO2 emissions as synchronous limiting factors. Here, taking Beijing as an example, a partial least squares STIRPAT model—a method that combines partial least squares with the STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model—was used to determine the main driving factors of water use and energy-related CO2 emissions at the regional scale from 1996 to 2016. The empirical results showed that the population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization level, technology level, and service level, are all important factors that influence the total water use and energy-related CO2 emissions. Additionally, eight scenarios were established to explore suitable development modes for future years. Consequently, a medium growth rate in socioeconomic status and population, and a high growth rate in the technology and service level, were found to be the most appropriate development modes. This scenario would result in a total water use of 4432.13 million m3 and energy-related CO2 emissions of 173.64 million tons in 2030. The results provide a new perspective for decision makers to explore suitable measures for simultaneously conserving water resources and reducing energy-related CO2 emissions in the context of urban development