Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption and Related Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Industrialization and Urbanization in Shanghai, China

Improvements of manufacturability and living standard driven by industrialization and urbanization typically cause a spike in total energy consumption (TEC) and related carbon emissions (TCEM). However, there have been few comparative studies to include industrial and residential energy consumption (IEC and REC, respectively) and related carbon emissions (ICEM and RCEM, respectively). Since China is a major emerging industrial country wherein urbanization is still ongoing, the present study was conducted in an attempt to analyze the temporal evolution of China’s continued energy consumption and related carbon emissions regarding both industrialization and urbanization. The influencing factors of TCEM, RCEM and ICEM are determined via the log-mean divisia index (LMDI) model. The results showed that both TEC and TCEM gradually increased (apart from a slight decrease in 2014); REC and RCEM increased steadily with no sharp peak; while IEC and ICEM declined sharply. TCEM was positively affected by economic output, consumption level, and population size; the influence of consumption level became more and more significant. Per capita GDP and per capita expenditure were the most significant driving factors for RCEM, while industrial added value (IAV) was the main driving factor for ICEM. The temporal evolution and influencing factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions had stage-related characteristics in accordance with Shanghai’s three stages of development. The Shanghai case study provided a comprehensive understanding of energy consumption and related carbon emissions from the dual perspective of industrialization and urbanization