Add to ORKGThis study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although the majority (62%) of 452 expert forecasts correctly predicted the directional error of polls, the typical expert’s vote share forecast was 7% (of the error) less accurate than a simple polling average from the same day. The results further suggest that experts follow the polls and do not sufficiently harness information incorporated in the fundamentals. Combining expert forecasts and polls with a fundamentals-based reference class forecast reduced the error of experts and polls by 24% and 19%, respectively. The findings demonstrate the benefits of ...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. ...
Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices we...
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. ...
"Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices w...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. ...
Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices we...
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. ...
"Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices w...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...