The predictive and prognostic role of a novel ADS score in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients undergoing esophagectomy

Abstract Background Chronic inflammation is deemed to play a significant effect on initiation and progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In current study, we investigated the prognostic and predictive role of albumin (Alb) to fibrinogen (Fib) ratio (AFR) and a novel AFR–Alb-derived neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) score (ADS) in ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy and compared them with Fib, Alb, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), dNLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR). Materials and methods A total of 153 clinical confirmed ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy between January 2011 and December 2013 were included in present study. We detected preoperative Alb, Fib and neutrophil, monocyte, lymphocyte and platelet count, and obtained overall survival (OS) by 3 years’ follow-up in the cases. X-tile software, Kaplan–Meier curve, Cox regression and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the predictive and prognostic role of them in ESCC patients. Results The optimal cut-off values of Fib, Alb, AFR, NLR, dNLR, PLR and LMR were 3.2 mg/dL, 38.2 g/L, 9.3, 2.1, 4.3, 145.9 and 2.3, respectively. High levels of Fib [(adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.148, 95% confidential interval (CI) (1.229–3.753)], dNLR (adjusted HR = 2.338, 95% CI 1.626–5.308) and PLR (adjusted HR = 1.964, 95% CI 1.129–3.415) as well as low AFR (adjusted HR = 2.381, 95% CI 1.152–4.926) and Alb (adjusted HR = 2.398, 95% CI 1.342–4.273) were significantly associated with decreased OS in ESCC patients. The survival predictive areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve of AFR, dNLR and Alb were higher than Fib and PLR, respectively. High ADS score was significantly associated with short 3 years’ OS of ESCC patients (adjusted HR = 2.94, 95% CI 1.70–5.08). Moreover, OS of ESCC patients receiving adjuvant radio-chemotherapy was longer than those without the treatment in high ADS score subgroup (p = 0.001), however, no significant survival difference was observed in the patients with or without treatment radio-chemotherapy (p = 0.297). Additionally, a significant difference was observed in c-index values of the nomograms including or without ADS (0.720 vs. 0.670, p < 0.05). Conclusions Preoperative ADS was a prospective biomarker to predict clinical efficacy of adjuvant radio-chemotherapy and clinical prognosis of ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy, and the score could apparently improve predicted efficacy of the nomogram