How Long should the MISR Record Be when Evaluating Aerosol Optical Depth Climatology in Climate Models?

This study used the nearly continuous 17-year observation record from the Multi- angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Earth Observing System satellite to determine which temporal subsets are long enough to define statistically stable speciated aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatologies (i.e., AOD by particle types) for purposes of climate model evaluation. A random subsampling of seasonally averaged total and speciated AOD retrievals was performed to quantitatively assess the statistical stability in the climatology, represented by the minimum record length required for the standard deviation of the subsampled mean AODs to be less than a certain threshold. Our results indicate that the multi-year mean speciated AOD from MISR is stable on a global scale; however, there is substantial regional variability in the assessed stability. This implies that in some regions, even 17 years may not provide a long enough sample to define regional mean total and speciated AOD climatologies. We further investigated the agreement between the statistical stability of total AOD retrievals from MISR and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), also on the NASA Terra satellite. The difference in the minimum record lengths between MISR and MODIS climatologies of total AOD is less than three years for most of the globe, with the exception of certain regions. Finally, we compared the seasonal cycles in the MISR total and speciated AODs with those simulated by three global chemistry transport models in the regions of climatologically stable speciated AODs. We found that only one model reproduced the observed seasonal cycles of the total and non-absorbing AODs over East China, but the seasonal cycles in total and dust AODs in all models are similar to those from MISR in Western Africa. This work provides a new method for considering the statistical stability of satellite-derived climatologies and illustrates the value of MISR’s speciated AOD data record for evaluating aerosols in global models