Modeling Malaria Prevalence Rate in Lagos State Using Multivariate Environmental Variations

ABSTRACTThe aim of this research is to establish the significant effect of environmental factors on malaria prevalence rate within the Local Government Areas of Lagos State. The methodology used was to carry out a statistical analysis of these various environmental factors with the malaria prevalence cases that was recorded in Lagos State using a 5 years data from 2009-2013 of malaria prevalence cases recorded with environmental data for the same time frame, and to further use GIS to show the various Local Government Areas with high severe malaria cases as well as low malaria cases. The result obtained from this analysis shows a significant relationship between the malaria prevalence cases and environmental factors of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity, this helped in developing a predictive model. The outcome from this research work can help the government, Lagos State Ministry of Health and donor agencies both local and international see the Local Government Areas within the state that are most vulnerable to malaria epidemic, and further aid them in policy formation, planning and strategy implementation.