The Influence of Climate and Land-Cover Scenarios on Dam Management Strategies in a High Water Pressure Catchment in Northeast Spain

This paper evaluates the response of streamflow in a Mediterranean medium-scaled basin under land-use and climate change scenarios and its plausible implication on the management of Boadella⁻Darnius reservoir (NE Spain). Land cover and climate change scenarios supposed over the next several decades were used to simulate reservoir inflow using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) and to analyze the future impacts on water management (2021⁻2050). Results reveal a clear decrease in dam inflow (−34%) since the dam was operational from 1971 to 2013. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar decrease (−31%) from 2021 to 2050. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by water authorities and the projected decrease in reservoir’s inflows, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change